Theme: Look at post flop play, remembering post flop play is closely linked to pre flop play. If we analyse a hand post flop we may find the problem started pre flop. Theme:
- General principles for post flop planning
- Evaluating post flop situation
Good Poker Model
1- Formulate a set of accurate assumptions.
2- Find best play based on these assumptions
Step 2 is easy, 1 is based on generalized assumptions, tendencies and logic therefore experience will improve this. When assumptions exist it is easy to deduce best play from them as we go from assumptions -> conclusion via mathematics. Ultimately we just want to learn best lines in general as doing the math is near impossible. If we ace step 2 we get the most out of whatever info and assumptions we have.
- In example 2.1.1 Hero made identified that villain was loose given HEM stats, and then formed assumptions about villains range given these stats. As a result we felt we could not value bet the river and we saw villain SD the type of hand we expected.
- All poker players subconsciously use the ‘good poker’ model, however verbalising the process has a significant advantage.
- Distinguish between making assumptions and drawing conclusions from assumptions. As it is easier to correct flaws in our thinking as mistakes in step 2 are generally easy to fix once you are aware of them. If a lack of info is the problem that is okay because we cannot reach precise conclusions.
- Poker is a game of imperfect info therefore there is a gray area.
Gray Area
- Black & white decisions are either right or wrong. Ie. Calling 2222 is bad in BB.
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Our gray area is HUGE to begin within PLO.
- As we improve the gray area shrinks, however there is always a gray area in someone’s game as it is part of the game.
- If we have a marginal hand on the button, against unknowns it could be best to fold, call or 3bet depending on their tendencies. However this is unknown at this stage so ultimately you refer to a default play. You can play based on general assumptions but you won’t be exploiting their weakness as of yet.
- Make assumptions -> Act the best way given these assumptions. Time between sessions will enable you to shrink your gray area.
- Reviewing sessions enables you to see if you missed some vital info or if given your current skill set it cannot be solved.
- When starting out in the game, ignore the small mistakes, focus on the big leaks!
Play to win money, not pots.
- Get rid of the ego, if the play is not +EV it is 0EV to fold despite having chips in the pot.
- People tend to overplay AA** post flop as they feel entitled to the pot as pre flop raiser. We often play fit or fold in PLO....it is not like No Limit where initial raiser reps a stronger range.
- Remember we want to barrel when villain likely has weak pairs/draws on the turn as folding may be a mistake by them as we get them off their equity. Checking behind to induce as we often induce thin value bets rather than bluffs and we struggle to call many rivers any way when draws etc. get there.
- Marginal best hands tend to have a small equity edge over marginal 2nd best hands therefore we want them to fold. Note how important position is in these circumstances.
- When OOP in a small pot with a marginal hand, consider future consequences when we are called....how often do we end up playing the guessing game?
- Folding the ‘best hand’ on the flop in PLO is okay especially OOP.
Planning Post Flop
- Normally when we make a decision to play a pot pre flop we have a general plan for various different textured flops
- Factors that influence your decision on the flop: 1 – Number of opponents. 2 – Position 3 – Stack Sizes (SPR) 4 – Our estimated equity given cards we see and assumptions about opponents and their range.
Number of opponents
- Number of players relates to hand strength
- General: HU Pots -> C-bet most flops. 3-way -> C-bet many pots, but check co-ordinated flops without strong hand. 4-way -> Mostly fit or fold.
- Note if you call a raise OOP and flop a strong vulnerable hand that we cannot rely on PFR to always c-bet.
- Don’t turn marginal hands into bluff catchers!
Position
- 2 types: Absolute position (to button) and relative position (to PFR and other players)
- Players out of position forced to play straighter forwardly and are often forced to limit their range first.
- Less bluffing as anyone can have anything in PLO, slow playing is not so good due to equities.
- We will not try winning pots too often with weak hands OOP.
- With position we can leverage by betting against a likely weak range on the turn when checked to which gives the threat of a possible follow up on the turn. A static strategy of c/c, c/f or c/c c/c is not great as IP player can easily bet twice on river with entire range and collect lots of dead money on turn or bet twice for thin value therefore OOP c/f would be best on turn if you’re not betting the turn, you can balance this by CRing some strong hands on turn to get to see a river card. But note if we find ourselves in this position on the turn, we should note the diagnosis is playing non-nutty hands OOP pre flop/betting marginal hands OOP on the flop.
- OOP + weak range + passive play = recipe for disaster.
- UNDERSTAND AND EXPLOIT POSITION IN PLO
Stacks Sizes
- Multi way pots means different SPR versus different opponents
- SPR’s 1 (need 33% equity), 4(44% equity), 13(48% equity) require 1, 2 and 3 PSB bets to get all in respectively.
- The higher the SPR, the lower effective pot odds we're getting for going all-in post-flop, and the more equity we need to get profitably all-in- Conversely, the lower the SPR, the less equity we need to get profitably all-in
- The higher the SPR the more important it is to have draws to the nuts – especially multi-way. As risk/reward is higher.
- SPR 6, HU, IN – we have AA88ddhh, flop J96dss, with naked AA here we can bet-fold or check behind and look to get to showdown, we have to fold to a CR as naked AA is only any good when SPR is less than one.
Summary
- Focus on the four factors (no. of opponents, position, SPR, estimated equity), need to ensure we consider these factors before our cards and let them guide our post flop play. Therefore ->
- Ignore the cards
- Think through every factor
- Decide what kind of hand you need to get involved on the flop
- Look at what you actually have, and decide whether or not this is good enough
- Practice post flop planning away from the table!
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