PLO From Scratch Part 9

Theme: We will focus on the 4^th factor: Estimating our equity here (craft not art) based on cards we see and opponents range.

- Count outs -> Convert to clean outs -> calculate equity

- Important in high SPR spots as we do not want to always be on wrong end of 55 – 45 flips in big pots (boring to learn, easy to ‘master’). Negative implied odds and high risk/reward ratio

- Infinite possibilities in PLO therefore as long as we have a sound frame work and know how to calculate equity

- Focus on when we are drawing and have to hit to win

- Ultra low SPR -> drawing to dirty outs is fine (ie. Q high flush draw)

- Flop Equity % = X = less than 9 outs -> Equity % = 4x. X = 9+ outs -> Equity % = 3x + 9

- Turn Equity % = No. of outs (X) /Unseen cards (44)

Flopped Pair and Outs to Two Pair/Trips

- Weak draw in high SPR spots, strong draw in low SPR spots but is very dependent on no. of opponents, SPR, board texture

- Consider hands you are up against, immediate pot odds and chance of improving and losing and future betting (possibly severe negative implied pot odds)

- Easy to calculate in 4bet pot when against likely AA**. With no backdoor flushes and minimal backdoor straight draws it is a very marginal call (maybe –EV with rake), so back draws help our equity a bunch here.

- A pair can be a lot of help when we have wrap, especially when villain can have a higher wrap. So in high SPR’s pairs can be help in addition to draws to big made hands and these extra pieces of equity assist us in getting on the right end of 55-45 flips.

Flush Draws

- Two-tone flops occur 60% of the time hence being suited is so important in PLO and ‘Premiums’ must have a suit.

- Having a flush draws can allow us to play more aggressively as it turns our hand more toward a monster

- 8 outs on flop to a flush (that don’t pair board) but also need to consider villains having flush draws/redraws. Higher the SPR more important to consider this.

- Drawing to non-nut flush draw in high SPR multi way pot with little else is suicidal

- Back door flush draws = 1 out. Reduce to ½ when it is non-nut flush draw and many opponents.

- Without a flush draw in PLO we are often forced to bet/fold or check/fold however if we have a flush draw we want the money in ASAP in general.

Guide lines:

• The nut flush draw has big value in combination with another draw or with a decent made hand
• A naked nut flush draw has limited value
• A non-nut flush draw can have decent value in combination with another good draw, or a good made hand
• A naked non-nut flush draw is mostly worthless (an exception is heads-up with ultra-low SPR)

Naked Nut-Flush Draw

o Lots of action on a two tone flop.....our outs may be in other player’s hands.

o When we hit it is often difficult to extract value....especially OOP.

o Never over estimate your implied odds with it.

o If we bet with it is because we expect a lot of steal equity to assist us.

- Ensure we use flexible thinking in these spots considering all 4 factors at all times

Straight Draws

- Big pots usually involve straight draws.

- JT6r is an action flop with so many draws.

- 97xx/87xx = 4 out gut shots
- KQxx/Q9xx/98xx = 8 out open-enders
- AKQx/987x = 13 out wraps
- AKQ9 = 16 outs wrap (with only nut outs)
- KQ9x/Q98x = 17 out wraps
- KQ98 = 20 out wrap

- Note they are not all to the nuts; therefore bad players can make big mistakes! Adding flush draws to the flop means a chance for even bigger mistakes. Hence hands like KKQJss, AKQJss are premium hands, and KK83r etc are marginal hands that do not play well post flop.

Weak Straight Draws (GSSD + open ender)

- Strength of these vary greatly as factors change, it is not as easy as saying a 4 out draw and 8 out draw.

- We could hit, but yet we are getting free rolled so often and back door flushes hold lots of hidden value that does not do well for us. Our immediate equity may look good on the flop but that is cause we are calling with the ‘best hand’, however we cannot get to SD with A high.

- Even when we hit and raise all in, it may therefore be a losing play. Ideally we want outs to the nuts with redraws to the better nuts.

- In situations where we end up making a –EV play by going all in with the nuts on the turn, our better play would be to fold flop or call and get it in on a blank river. Against a weak tight player, who bets big on scary river we can fold, however if checked to we could bluff the card and move them off the same hand as ourselves.....but avoid these situations

- High SPR = WE WANT STRONG NUTS WRAPS.

Wrap Straight Draws

- Any draw with more outs than standard open ender (Medium strong wraps, up to 13 outs. Monster Wraps, 16, 17 and 20 outs).

- To be a favourite on the flop we need 14 clean outs on the flop, so 13 out wraps are near the threshold where we can bet and get it all in.

- Need to factor in nut outs vs. non-nut outs, especially multi way in high SPR pots.

- Weakest wrap = 3 card inside wrap with 9 outs, all to the nuts with no flush draw on board. Can be all we need in ultra low SPR, with medium SPR having another piece of equity can be enough for us to go with it for example in HU 3-bet pot.

- 13+ out wrap draws. (Wrap around a connector on flop/around a 1-gapper on the flop/around a 2-gapper on the flop)

Summary (X = card in our hand, Y= card on flop) MEMORIZE THIS.

Wrap around connector:
2-2 x x y y x x 20 (14)
2-1 x x y y x 17 (11)
1-2 x y y x x 17 (7)
3-1 x x x y y x 16 (16)
3-0 x x x y y 13 (13)
0-3 y y x x x 13 (3)

Wrap around 1-gapper:
1-1 x y x y x 17 (11)
2-1 x x y x y x 16 (16)
2-0 x x y x y 13 (13)
0-2 y x y x x 13 (3)

Wrap around 2-gapper:
1-0 x y x x y 13 (13)
0-1 y x x y x 13 (7)

Summary

We looked at calculating equity with various draws and look at the importance of factoring in other variables before deciding the true strength of our draw ensuring that we do have the type of hand we want in order to play a big pot. Ensuring we consider no. of opponents, SPR, position and estimate our equity will ensure that we do not make any huge mistakes in learning PLO.